An integrated FTA–MCDM framework for identifying root causes and prioritizing control factors in oil and gas well blowouts (Case study: South Pars gas field)
Journal of Behdasht dar Arseh (i.e., Health in the Field),
Vol. 13 No. 3 (1404),
10 June 2026
,
Page 58-68
https://doi.org/10.22037/jhf.v13i3.47508
Abstract
Background and Aims: Blowouts of oil and gas wells are considered one of the most critical risks in drilling operations. The present study was conducted with the aim of root cause analysis and risk assessment of oil and gas well blowouts using the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) method, as well as prioritizing effective control factors through a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach in the South Pars Gas Field in 2023.
Materials and Methods: The present descriptive–applied study was conducted on an onshore drilling rig. Root causes of well blowouts were identified using the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) method based on the opinions of 10 experts. Quantitative fault tree analysis and estimation of blowout probability were performed using Cara FaultTree software. The identified control factors were prioritized through a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method. Ethical principles were observed throughout the conduct of the study and in the use of research resources.
Results: A total of 24 basic and intermediate events were identified. Human error, with a failure probability of 0.01, had the highest likelihood among the evaluated events. The probability of a hydrocarbon blowout was estimated to be 8.2×10⁻⁴. The components of drilling rig collapse, natural hazards, and failure of the blowout preventer system were identified as the main contributors to well blowout occurrence, with probabilities of 1.224×10⁻14, 5.508×10⁻⁷, and 7.65×10⁻⁸, respectively.
Conclusion: Improving the performance and reliability of protective layers is recommended as a fundamental strategy to mitigate this threat in oil and gas wells.
- Oil and gas well blowout
- Fault tree analysis
- Multi criteria decision making
How to Cite
References
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