Investigating the Causality Relationship between the Development of Road Transport and Accidents in the Country
Irtiqa Imini Pishgiri Masdumiyat (Safety Promotion and Injury Prevention),
Vol. 8 No. 4 (1399),
30 January 2021
,
Page 246 - 238
https://doi.org/10.22037/meipm.v8i4.32062
Abstract
Background and Objectives: Road accidents and their consequences are a vital issue internationally, in the developed and developing countries. The objective of this article was to investigate the causality relationship between the development of road transport and accidents in Iran during 1996-1998.
Materials and Methods: First, the research method and statistical data used were examined, and then the generalized Dickey-Fuller unit root test was used to evaluate the durability of the variables. Then, to determine the long-run relationship between the variables, the co-integration test was used. Granger causality test was also used to determine the short-term relationship between variables. In the last step, we calculate the residuals from the accumulated co-regression and obtain the short-term parameters by estimating the ECM.
Results: The results of the Granger causality test in the framework of VAR and VEC show that in the short and long term there is a relationship between value-added growth of road transport, growth of cargo, and passenger growth with the growth of accidents. This relationship was one-way. The causal relationship between the value-added growth of the road transport sector, the growth of cargo transportation and passenger growth to the growth of accidents in this sector is significant at the level of 5%. This means that the growth of value-added in the road transport sector, the growth of cargo, and the growth of passenger transport cause the growth of accidents in the country's road transport sector.
Conclusion: The results indicated that there is a long-term relationship between value-added growth of road transport sector, growth of cargo and passenger growth with the growth of accidents in the country. The effect of value-added of road transport sector, growth of cargo and passenger growth on the growth of accidents is positive. The results of the Granger causality test in the short term indicated the existence of a one-way causal relationship between the value-added of the road transport sector, cargo, and passenger. And, they correlated with the increase in accidents in this sector. However, a two-way causal relationship between these variables was not observed. The results of the error correction model confirm the results of the Granger causality test.
How to cite this article:
Bazdar-Ardabily P, Pejmanzad P. Investigating the Causality Relationship between the Development of Road Transport and Accidents in the Country. J Saf Promot Inj Prev. 2021; 8(4):238-46.
- Road Transport Development; Road Accidents; Vector Auto regression; Granger Causality
How to Cite
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