The Role of long-term Relationship of Economic Development with Road Incidents in Iran
Irtiqa Imini Pishgiri Masdumiyat (Safety Promotion and Injury Prevention),
Vol. 5 No. 4 (2017),
13 March 2018
,
Page 200 - 193
https://doi.org/10.22037/meipm.v5i4.20718
Abstract
Background and Objectives: Road incidents and its fatalities are one of the challenges of human societies that which have imposed a high burden on the economies of some countries. The objective of this study was to investigate the impact of the long-term relationship between economic development and road incidences of Iran during the years 1394-1369.
Materials and Methods: The impact of the long-term relationship between economic development and road incidences of the transport sector is modelled using a vector autoregressive (VAR) model through the Microfit and Eviews softwares. To examine the reliability and accumulation of variables, the optimal lags, is determined. In the next step, the number of co-integration vectors of the model is determined; consequently, the optimal model is deduced. Variance decomposition of the forecast error method is used to study the explanatory power of the variations of the number of road incidences on the economic development of transportation.
Results: The positive logarithm of the ratio of GDP per capita was 29.10 in the estimation of the model which suggests that economic growth (increase per capita income) has been accompanied by higher accidents in the road segment and also according to the negative coefficient of variation of the logarithm of the gross domestic product per capita, indicates that in the next stages of economic growth, the rate of road accidents decreases. the results also show that there is a significant and positive relationship (0.66) between the Gini coefficient variable which indicates income distribution inequality in the country and road traffic accidents. considering the positive coefficient of the length of roads in the country (0.53), it can be seen that this variable has a positive relationship with road fatalities toll. also, from the results of model estimation, it is concluded that there is a direct correlation between population variable (POP) and road accident rate (4.21), indicating that along with population growth, the number of road accidents has increased.
Conclusion: The results of the research indicate that Kuznets's hypothesis could be confirmed in case of Iran. This means that in the early stages of economic growth, the rate of road accidents increases and finally Due to technical advances, increased investment in related sectors and appropriate training, this rate reduces at the high level of per capita income.
How to cite this article: Bazdar Ardebili P, Pejmanzad P. The role of long-term relationship of economic development with road incidents in Iran. Irtiqa Imini Pishgiri Masdumiyat (Safety Promotion and Injury Prevention). 2017; 5(4):193-200.
- Road Crashes, Economic Development, Vector Auto Regression Method, Kuznets hypothesis
How to Cite
References
Ghadirzadeh MR, Shojaei A, Khademi A, Khodadost M, Kandi M, Alaeddini F et al. Status and Trend of Deaths Due to Traffic Accidents From 2001 to 2010 in Iran. Iranian Journal of Epidemiology. 2015; 11(2):13-22[Scopus].
Ardebili PB, Pejmanzad P. The role of road crashes on the growth of value added in transport sector. J Saf Promot Inj Prev. 2016; 4(1):25-32.
Bakhtiyari M, Soori H, Ainy E, Salehi M, Mehmandar MR. The Survey of the Role of Humans’ Risk Factors in the Severity of Road Traffic Injuries on Urban and Rural Roads. J Saf Promot Inj Prev.2014; 2(5):245-52.
Behbahani H, Kamboozia N. Investigation on the Effect of Economic Growth on the Rate of Traffic Fatalities in Iran and Comparison with Other Countries. The 13th International Conference on Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2013.
Tavakkoli L, Khanjani N. The Pattern of Road Crashes Emphasizing the Factors involved in their Occurrence in Kerman city 2012-2015. J Saf Promot Inj Prev. 2016; 4(2): 101-8.
Ghorbani M, Zakeri H. Investigating the Impact of Economic Growth on Road Traffic Fatalities and Forecasting Iranian Road Traffic Fatalities, the third Conference on Regional Traffic Managemen.2006.
Ghoraishi R. Investigating the Relationship between Economic Growth and Road Traffic Fatalities in Iran. MSc Dissertation. Urmia University.2010.
Statical Yearbook of Road Maintenance & Transportation Organization in 2014 years, Deputy Planning, Road Maintenance & Transportation Organization, Ministry of Road & Urban Development, 2014.
National Accounts of Iran. 2014. Central Bank of Iran. Available at: URL: http://www.cbi.ir/simplelist/2054.aspx. Accessed May 1, 2017.
Aleemran R, Aleemran SA. Study the long-run relationship between road accident and its influencing factors in Iran. Scientific-Research Quarterly of Rahvar. 2015;4(12):33-54.
Zokaei E, Khodavaisi H, Falahi F. Exploring the Relationship between Economic Development and Road Traffic Fatalities in Iran: a Negative Binomial Regression Approach. Quarterly Journal of Economic Growth and Development Research, 2012; 2(5):183-205.
Statistical Center of Iran. Available at: URL: https://www.amar.org.ir. Accessed May 1, 2017.
- Abstract Viewed: 402 times
- PDF (فارسی) Downloaded: 170 times