Foresight of Libraries of Medical Sciences Universities: Uncertainties and Scenarios
Journal of Medical Library and Information Science,
Vol. 5 No. 5 (2024),
8 January 2024
,
Page 1-12
https://doi.org/10.22037/jmlis.v5i.46438
Abstract
Introduction: University libraries play a crucial role in education and research, often serving as essential consultants. Foresight enables these libraries to pinpoint key challenges and actively shape their future. This study aims to outline possible scenarios for the future of libraries at selected medical universities in Tehran over the next 20 years.
Methods: The research unfolded in two stages: identifying fundamental uncertainties and developing scenarios. Initially, uncertainties were identified through a review of existing studies and expert opinions collected via questionnaires. The consensus and significance of each uncertainty were assessed, leading to the identification of two primary uncertainties. In the second stage, scenarios were crafted using the Intuitive Logics method based on these uncertainties.
Results: Ten uncertainties were identified in the initial phase. The uncertainties of “independent versus dependent administration” and “free vs. non-free services” emerged as fundamental. Four scenarios were then developed: “Library as a Center for Interaction and Implementation,” “Active Libraries,” “Library as a Center for Development and Support,” and “Productive Libraries.”
Conclusion: Depending on future developments, each of these four scenarios could potentially unfold. University libraries must be prepared to adapt to any of these possibilities.
- Foresight
- Libraries of medical science universities
- Scenarios
How to Cite
References
1. Moradipour H. Future Study: Concepts and approaches. RAHYAFT [Internet]. 2005;15(36):45-50. [cited 2024 Nov 22] Available from: https://rahyaft.nrisp.ac.ir/article_13407.html?lang=en. [In Persian].
2. Mahmoudi B. Introduction to futures studies and its methods. Tehran: Expediency Council, Center for Strategic Research [Internet]; 2006. [cited 2023 Sep 12] Available from: https://vpb.um.ac.ir/images/23/stories/pdfword/TarhayeMotaleati/rahbordi2/futurmethods.pdf. [In Persian].
3. Azizkhani Z, Esmaeilpour R. The great impact of future study trends on the functioning of iranian public libraries. J Futur Stud. 2014;3(9):267-279. [cited 2024 Nov 22] Available from: https://elmnet.ir/doc/1516224-87169. [In Persian].
4. Voros J. A generic foresight process framework. foresight. 2003;5(3):47-62. doi: 10.1108/14636680310698379
5. Martin, B. Foresight in science and technology. Technol Anal Strateg Manag. 1996;7:139-168. doi: 10.1080/09537329508524202
6. Martin, B. Technology foresight in a rapidly globalising economy [book on the Internet]. Vienna, 2001. [cited 2024 Nov 22]. Available from: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Technology-foresight-in-a-rapidly-globalizing-Martin/3174a3a3696f64d76eb5e4f287f8a5a3a6c7ca5e
7. Kaivo-oja, J. Scenario learning and potential sustainable development processes in spatial contexts. Futur Res Q [Internet]. 2001 [cited 2024 Nov 22]; 17(2):33-55. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/234037114_Scenario_Learning_and_Potential_Sustainable_Development_Processes_in_Spatial_Contexts_Towards_Risk_Society_or_Ecological_Modernization_Scenarios/citations
8. Heijden K.V.D. Scenarios: The Art of strategic conversation [book on the Internet]. England: John Wiley & Sons Ltd; 1996 [cited 2024 Nov 22]. Available from: http://www.laprospective.fr/dyn/francais/memoire/texte_fondamentaux/the-art-of-strategic-conversation-van-der-heijden.pdf
9. Bakhtyari AB, Moradi I, Mirhosseini Z. Foresight of information technology in Iranian public libraries: Future studies approach. In: IFLA WLIC 2017 – Wrocław, Poland – Libraries. Solidarity. Society in Session 112 - Poster Sessions. [cited 2024 Nov 22]. Available from: https://library.ifla.org/id/eprint/1955/
10. Ghafari-ghadir G, Roshandel T, Ziyaei M. Possible scenarios for the future of Iran's public libraries media. Res Inf Sci Public Libr [Internet]. 2013 [cited 2024 Nov 22]; 19(3):295-328. Available from: https://publij.ir/article-1-991-en.pdf. [In Persian].
11. Isfandyari-Moghaddam AR, Akbari Bavil T. A survey of future public libraries in terms of space, resources, purpose, function, technology and skills of librarians. InProceedings of the First National Conference on: Future Studies of Public Libraries in Iran. Iran Public Libraries Foundation 2019. [in Persian].
12. Babaei p, Afshar E. Landscape analysis of four famous public libraries in the West. In: Fattahi R, Tahouri Z, Editors. Proceedings of the First National Conference of the Future Study of Iranian Public Libraries; 2014 June, Tehran: Public Libraries Foundation of Iran in cooperation with the Cultural and Artistic Organization of Tehran Municipality. Tehran: Chapar; 2018. [in Persian].
13. Poor Salehi N, Naqdi Pourbirgani R, Jafari S. Appropriate Public Library Foresight Methods: An Overview of Resources and Methods. In: Fattahi R, Tahouri Z, Editors. Proceedings of the First National Conference of the Future Study of Iranian Public Libraries; 2014 June, Tehran: Public Libraries Foundation of Iran in cooperation with the Cultural and Artistic Organization of Tehran Municipality. Tehran: Chapar; 2018. [in Persian].
14. Meier J. The Future of Academic Libraries: Conversations with Today's Leaders about Tomorrow. Portal Libr Acad. 2016;16(2):263-288. doi: 10.1353/pla.2016.0015
15. Jaguszewski J M, Williams K. New roles for new times: Transforming liaison roles in research libraries — Association of Research Libraries [Internet]. [cited 2025 Jan 22]. Available from: https://www.arl.org/resources/new-roles-for-new-times-transforming-liaison-roles-in-research-libraries/
16. The ARL 2030 Scenarios: A User’s Guide for Research Libraries — Association of Research Libraries [Internet]. [cited 2025 Jan 22]. Available from: https://www.arl.org/resources/the-arl-2030-scenarios-a-users-guide-for-research-libraries/
17. Casey AM. Strategic Priorities and Change in Academic Libraries. [dissertation on the Internet]. Boston: Simmons College, 2011. [cited 2024 Nov 22]. Available from: https://www.proquest.com/openview/02c8dafda108cc246acc4383514ad9a8/1?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=18750
18. Mathews B. Librarian as futurist: changing the way libraries think about the future. Portal Libr Acad. 2014;14(3):453-462. doi: 10.1353/pla.2014.0019
19. Hernon P, Joseph R. Reflecting on the future of academic and public Libraries. [Internet]. [cited 2025 Jan 22]. Available from: https://alastore.ala.org/content/reflecting-future-academic-and-public-libraries
20. Giesecke J. Scenario Planning for Libraries (Google eBook). 1998 [cited 2025 Jan 22];128. Available from: http://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=3NamZ6jIuE8C&pgis=1
21. Hariri N, Rezaei V. Foresighting information technology in university libraries of Iran in 2024. J Knowl Stud [Internet]. 2017 [cited 2024 Nov 14]; 10(39):107-120. Available from: https://sanad.iau.ir/en/Journal/qje/Article/1041170. [In Persian].
22. Zahedi R, Nemati-Anaraki L, Goharinezhad S, Shahraki-Mohammadi A. Foresight of libraries of universities of medical sciences in Tehran over a 20 years’ horizon. Iran: Iran University of Medical Sciences; 2020
23. Ludwig L, Starr S. Library as place: Results of a delphi study. J Med Libr Assoc. 2005;93(3):315-26. PMID: 16059421
24. Tanloet P, Tuamsuk K. Core competencies for information professionals of Thai academic libraries in the next decade (AD 2010–2019). Int Inf Libr Rev. 2011;43(3):122-129. doi: 10.1016/j.iilr.2011.07.005
25. Ghafari-ghadir G. The future of Iranian public libraries for an effective presence among new and emerging media competitors. [Thesis]. Tehran: University of Tehran; 2013. [In Persian].
26. Akbari T. Future public libraries from the perspective of members of the Mashhad Library Discussion Group. [Thesis]. Hamedan: Islamic Azad University; 2013. [In Persian].
27. Huysmans F, Hillebrink C. The future of the Dutch public library: Ten years on. [book on the Internet]. Den Haag: SCP.2008 [cited 2024 Nov 14]. Availab,e from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/254876775_The_future_of_the_Dutch_public_library_Ten_years_on
28. Zolfagharzadeh MM, Zackery A, Gilani Nezhad FZ, Sedaghat Baghbani S, Nasrolahi H, Miari S. Future Scenarios of Iran's Public Libraries Based on Futures Workshops for Selected Librarians, Managers and Members. Res Inf Sci Public Libr [Internet]. 2021 [cited 2024 Nov 18]; 26(4):751-785. Available from: http://publij.ir/article-1-2224-en.pdf. [In Persian].
- Abstract Viewed: 160 times
- e63 (PDF) Downloaded: 148 times
