Foresight of Libraries of Medical Sciences Universities: Uncertainties and Scenarios
Journal of Medical Library and Information Science,
Vol. 5 (2024),
8 January 2024
https://doi.org/10.22037/jmlis.v5i.46438
Abstract
Introduction: University libraries, due to their role in educational and research consulting are well considered. The purpose of this research is to write possible scenarios for the future of libraries of selected medical universities in Tehran over a 20-year horizon.
Methods: This research was conducted in two stages included determination of fundamental uncertainties and write of scenarios. In the first phase, uncertainties were determined based on the opinions of experts and sent in the form of a questionnaire to ecperts and professions and the consensus and importance for each of the uncertainties was calculated. Based on this, two basic uncertainties were identified. In the second stage, the scenario was developed based on two basic uncertainties and with Intuitive logics method.
Results: First, ten uncertainties were determined based on the opinion of experts.Then, the two uncertainties of “independent versus dependent administration” and “free services versus non-free services” were identified as fundamental uncertainties and finally four scenarios were written based on them.
Conclusion: Depending on future events, each of these four scenarios can be happen and university libraries need to be prepared to deal with each of them.
- Foresight
- University Medical Science Libraries
- Scenarios
How to Cite
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