Is Social Distancing Policy Effective in Controlling COVID-19? An Interrupted Time Series Analysis
Archives of Academic Emergency Medicine,
Vol. 9 No. 1 (2021),
1 January 2021
,
Page e41
https://doi.org/10.22037/aaem.v9i1.1201
Abstract
Introduction: The social distancing plan is one of the ways that was implemented for management of COVID-19 pandemic. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of the social distancing on reducing the daily new cases and deaths from COVID-19.
Methods: In this cross-sectional study, the data of daily new cases and daily deaths were collected from 15/02/2020 to 19/04/2020. Changes in the level and trend of daily new cases and daily deaths before and after the implementation of social distancing plan were evaluated using interrupted time series (ITS) analysis in STATA software.
Results: The post-intervention trend had a decrease of 102 new cases per day and 7 new deaths per day compared to the pre-intervention trend (p < 0.001). Moreover, in the post-intervention period, the daily new cases had a decrease of 58 new cases per day and 2 new deaths per day (p < 0.001).
Conclusion: It Could be concluded that social distancing plan directly affects the new daily cases and new daily deaths.
- Physical distancing
- incidence
- COVID-19
- interrupted time series analysis
- Iran
How to Cite
References
Gorbalenya AE. Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus–The species and its viruses, a statement of the Coronavirus Study Group. BioRxiv. 2020.
Wilder-Smith A, Freedman D. Isolation, quarantine, social distancing and community containment: pivotal role for old-style public health measures in the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak. Journal of travel medicine. 2020;27(2):taaa020.
Raoofi A, Takian A, Sari AA, Olyaeemanesh A, Haghighi H, Aarabi M. COVID-19 Pandemic and Comparative Health Policy Learning in Iran. Archives of Iranian Medicine. 2020;23(4):220.
Prof. Sunitha B K DVA. COVID – 19: Current Pandemic and Its Societal Impact. International Journal of Advanced Science and Technology. 2020;29(5s):432 - 9.
Pan A, Liu L, Wang C, Guo H, Hao X, Wang Q, et al. Association of public health interventions with the epidemiology of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China. Jama. 2020.
Nussbaumer‐Streit B, Mayr V, Dobrescu AI, Chapman A, Persad E, Klerings I, et al. Quarantine alone or in combination with other public health measures to control COVID‐19: a rapid review. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. 2020(4).
Busch C, Ludwig A, Santaeulàlia-Llopis R. Emerging evidence of a silver lining: A ridge walk to avoid an economic catastrophe in Italy and Spain. SAFE White Paper, 2020.
Thayer WM, Hasan MZ, Sankhla P, Gupta S. An interrupted time series analysis of the lockdown policies in India: a national-level analysis of COVID-19 incidence. Health Policy and Planning. 2021.
Shah SA, Quint JK, Nwaru BI, Sheikh A. Impact of COVID-19 national lockdown on asthma exacerbations: interrupted time-series analysis of English primary care data. Thorax. 2021.
Kiani MM, Tajvar M. Analyzing Normal Delivery Promotion Policy in Health System Reform of Iran: An Application of Kingdon Multiple Streams Model. Health_Based Research. 2018;3(4).
Wagner AK, Soumerai SB, Zhang F, Ross‐Degnan D. Segmented regression analysis of interrupted time series studies in medication use research. Journal of clinical pharmacy and therapeutics. 2002;27(4):299-309.
Yakhforoshha A, Emami SAH, Shahi F, Shahsavari S, Cheraghi M, Mojtahedzadeh R, et al. Effectiveness of integrating simulation with art-based teaching strategies on oncology fellows’ performance regarding breaking bad news. Journal of Cancer Education. 2019;34(3):463-71.
Bernal JL, Soumerai S, Gasparrini A. A methodological framework for model selection in interrupted time series studies. Journal of clinical epidemiology. 2018;103:82-91.
Alamshahi M, Olfati F, Shahsavari S, Taherpour M. The Effectiveness of group counseling based on problem-solving on experiencing domestic violence among pregnant women: A clinical trial. Social Health and Behavior. 2020;3(2):62.
Hopewell S, Ravaud P, Baron G, Boutron I. Effect of editors’ implementation of CONSORT guidelines on the reporting of abstracts in high impact medical journals: interrupted time series analysis. Bmj. 2012;344:e4178.
Kuper-Smith BJ, Doppelhofer LM, Oganian Y, Rosenblau G, Korn C. Optimistic beliefs about the personal impact of COVID-19. 2020.
Lakshmi Priyadarsini S, Suresh M. Factors influencing the epidemiological characteristics of pandemic COVID 19: A TISM approach. International Journal of Healthcare Management. 2020:1-10.
de Figueiredo AM, Codina AD, Moreira DC, Figueiredo M, Saez M, León AC. Impact of lockdown on COVID-19 incidence and mortality in China: an interrupted time series study. 2020.
Siedner MJ, Harling G, Reynolds Z, Gilbert RF, Venkataramani A, Tsai AC. Social distancing to slow the U.S. COVID-19 epidemic: an interrupted time-series analysis. medRxiv. 2020:2020.04.03.20052373.
Maliszewska M MA, Van Der Mensbrugghe D. The potential impact of COVID-19 on GDP and trade: A preliminary assessment. Policy research working paper. East Asia and the Pacific Region Office of the Chief Economist &Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice April 2020: 9211, 1-26.
- Abstract Viewed: 1175 times
- pdf Downloaded: 529 times
