Short-term and long-term survival of patients with gastric cancer
Gastroenterology and Hepatology from Bed to Bench,
8 March 2021
Background: Bayesian mixture cure rate model is commonly used to analyze dataset with long-term survival rates by controlling the frailty effect so that the heterogeneity between observations can be also controlled through this model. On the other hand, determining the risk factors and protective factors of gastric cancer is currently considered very important due to the fact that the disease has become one of the most dangerous types of mortal cancers. Therefore, it is possible to determine the effective risk factors of short-term and long-term survival in patients through utilizing from this model.
Methods: Present study was conducted on 339 patients with gastric cancer whose data have been recorded in hospitals of Kerman province of Iran during 2001-2015. In the study, Bayesian mixture cure rate model was used to determine the effective factors of short-term and long-term survivals in patients. The frailty effect was also taken into account in the model to control heterogeneity between patients.
Results: In present study, the event of interest was occurred for 57.5% of patients. Over time, the survival rate of cancer patients was reached to its lowest approximately 0.3 at the end of study. According to the results of present study, variables of chemotherapy, morphology and metastasis were identified as effective factors of short-term and long-term survivals of patients.
Conclusion: The effective factors of long-term survivor can be identified in addition identifying the effective factor of their short-term survival by utilizing from Bayesian mixture cure rate model with taking into account the frailty effect, while this matter is impossible through conventional models of survival analysis. On the other hand, the chemotherapy, morphology and metastasis are the most important effective factors of short-term and long-term survival in patients with gastric cancer.
- Gastric cancer
- short-term survival
- long-term survival
- cure rate model
- Bayesian inference
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