Modeling the Impact of some Variables the COVID-19 Severe with CART Algorithm in Mashhad University of Medical Sciences
Iranian Journal of Emergency Medicine,
Vol. 9 No. 1 (2022),
16 March 2022
,
Page e36
https://doi.org/10.22037/ijem.v9i1.39540
Abstract
Introduction: Considering that the new corona virus (COVID -19) is still prevalent, one of the important concerns is the variables affecting the severity of the corona disease in the health of society. In this study, the CART algorithm was fitted to predict and determine the status of patients infected with COVID-19 in Mashhad University of Medical Sciences.
Methods: This paper is a cross sectional-analytical study. Datasets were obtained from all of the people referred for the disease of COVID -19 collected at the Sinai system during the second peak and the fourth peak of the disease in Mashhad University of Medical Sciences. Data analysis was performed using JMP statistical software version 13. Then for modeling, data mining methods and CART algorithm are used.
Results: The descriptive findings of our study showed that 6% of patients with positive PCR suffer from severe disease of COVID-19. The age variable was very important in the severity of the disease. The age of 60 years old is the cut-off point for the severity of the disease, which increases COVID-19 severe from about 3% under the age of 60 to about 18% over the age of 60. The diseases of heart, kidney, respiratory, blood fat, and diabetes were other important variables.
Conclusion: The results of the CART model showed that for the age under 60 years the variables of heart disease, age, diabetes, respiratory disease, fat, gender, and kidney, and for the age over 60 years the variables of age, heart disease, kidney, respiratory and diabetes were respectively the most critical risk factors. According to the ROC curve, the fitted model has a good performance for COVID-19 severe disease, so it increases up to 6 times the prediction of the COVID-19 severe disease.
- Covid-19
- Datamining
- severity
- prediction
- ROC curve
- CART algorithm
How to Cite
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