Early estimation the epidemiological parameters of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) outbreak in Iran: 19 Feb-15 March, 2020 COVID-19 epidemiological parameters in Iran
Gastroenterology and Hepatology from Bed to Bench,
9 December 2020
Background: Estimating the epidemiological parameters of new public health threat (COVID-19) are essential to support and inform public health decision making in different communities including Iran.
Methods: We established a mathematical model to estimate the epidemiological parameters from 19 Feb to 15 March based on daily COVID-19 confirmed cases in Iran. Then we estimated the effect of early traffic restriction on our estimation.
Results: We estimated the R0 at 2.11 (95% CI, 1.87-2.50) while we estimate the infected number at 92,260 (95% CI: 59,263 -152,212) by 15 March. Our estimate for the ascertainment rate was about 1.2% (95% CI: 1.1-1.4). The latent period estimation was 4.24 (95% CI: 2.84-6.65). We observed a decline in our estimate after considering the traffic restriction.
Conclusion: Our results suggest that health authorities in Iran must take impactful strategies to control the COVID-19 outbreak so R0<1. Therefore, the establishment of complementary, multilateral, and cost-effectiveness measures for the treatment of symptomatic and early diagnosis and isolation of asymptomatic cases/contacts are strongly recommended owing to the low ascertainment rate and the high number of infected cases. We additionally recommend that traffic restriction should be combined with other controlling measures.
- COVID-19; Iran; Outbreak; Epidemiological Parameters
2. Committee WE. Statement on the second meeting of the International Health Regulations (2005) Emergency Committee regarding the outbreak of novel coronavirus (COVID-19). 2020.
3. Chan JF-W, Yuan S, Kok K-H, To KK-W, Chu H, Yang J, et al. A familial cluster of pneumonia associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus indicating person-to-person transmission: a study of a family cluster. The Lancet. 2020;395(10223):514-23.
4. Rothe C, Schunk M, Sothmann P, Bretzel G, Froeschl G, Wallrauch C, et al. Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in Germany. N Engl J Med. 2020;382(10):970-1.
5. van den Driessche P. Reproduction numbers of infectious disease models. Infect Dis Model. 2017;2(3):288-303.
6. Ebrahim SH, Memish ZA. COVID-19: preparing for superspreader potential among Umrah pilgrims to Saudi Arabia. The Lancet. 2020;395(10227): e48.
7. Read JM, Bridgen JRE, Cummings DAT, Ho A, Jewell CP. Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions. medRxiv. 2020:2020.01.23.20018549.
8. Jon Read, Jess Bridgen, Chris Jewell. Modelling of the nCoV-2019 outbreak in Wuhan 2020 [updated 2020/03/21. Available from: https://github.com/chrism0dwk/wuhan/tree/v0.2.
9. Agency IRN. Multimedia, Irans coronavirus toll update 2020 [Available from: https://en.irna.ir/photo/83723991/Iran-s-coronavirus-toll-update.
10. Road Maintenance and Transport Organization. Passenger Statistics 2020 [updated 2020/03/21. Available from: http://www.rmto.ir/en/Pages/StatisticalIndex.aspx?FolderID=5.
11. The Civil Aviation Organization of Islamic Republic of Iran (CAO.IRI). Statistics and Information Technology Office 2020 [updated 2020/03/21. Available from: https://www.cao.ir/web/english/34.
12. Riou J, Althaus CL. Pattern of early human-to-human transmission of Wuhan 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), December 2019 to January 2020. Euro Surveill. 2020;25(4):2000058.
13. Li Q, Guan X, Wu P, Wang X, Zhou L, Tong Y, et al. Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus–infected pneumonia. New England Journal of Medicine. 2020;382(13):1199-207.
14. Zhao S, Lin Q, Ran J, Musa SS, Yang G, Wang W, et al. Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak. Int J Infect Dis. 2020;92:214-7.
15. Majumder M, Mandl KD. Early transmissibility assessment of a novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China. China (January 23, 2020). 2020.
16. Liu T, Hu J, Kang M, Lin L, Zhong H, Xiao J, et al. Transmission dynamics of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). 2020.
17. Tang B, Wang X, Li Q, Bragazzi NL, Tang S, Xiao Y, et al. Estimation of the Transmission Risk of the 2019-nCoV and Its Implication for Public Health Interventions. J Clin Med. 2020;9(2):462.
18. Liu Y, Gayle AA, Wilder-Smith A, Rocklöv J. The reproductive number of COVID-19 is higher compared to SARS coronavirus. Journal of travel medicine. 2020;27(2).
19. Chinazzi M, Davis JT, Ajelli M, Gioannini C, Litvinova M, Merler S, et al. The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. Science. 2020;368(6489):395-400.
20. Jane Qiu. Covert coronavirus infections could be seeding new outbreaks 2020 [Available from: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00822-x.
21. Rothe C, Schunk M, Sothmann P, Bretzel G, Froeschl G, Wallrauch C, et al. Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in Germany. New England Journal of Medicine. 2020;382(10):970-1.
22. Nishiura H, Kobayashi T, Yang Y, Hayashi K, Miyama T, Kinoshita R, et al. The Rate of Underascertainment of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Infection: Estimation Using Japanese Passengers Data on Evacuation Flights. J Clin Med. 2020;9(2).
23. Omori R, Mizumoto K, Nishiura H. Ascertainment rate of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Japan. Int J Infect Dis. 2020;96(July 2020):673-5.
- Abstract Viewed: 0 times