Predicting the mortality due to Covid-19 by the next month for Italy, Iran and South Korea; a simulation study
Gastroenterology and Hepatology from Bed to Bench,
9 March 2020
Aim: To estimate the number of confirmed cases and the rate of death and also to investigate the cause of death in Italy, Iran and South Korea in the next month.
Background: Growing number of confirmed and deaths cases from the coronavirus worldwide, particularly in Italy, Iran and South Korea, has resulted concerns about the future of these countries and their deterioration. Also the European region is likely to face more casualties due to the delay in the virus reaching most of its regions and, of course, as the trend continues.
Methods: We conducted a simulation in both current and ideal situation for the next month to predict the death rate and examine the reason for the difference in Italy, Iran and South Korea individually. If we assume the cultural and political factors and age pyramids distribution are similar across regions, the differences are mainly due either to the heavier health-care burden owing to the larger population or to the medical facilities diversities.
Results: Our results for Italy showed higher death number, but the rate would be more for Iran. South Korea is also expected to have a smaller increase in the number of confirmed cases and deaths compared to Iran and Italy by the next month.
Conclusion: Given the prevailing conditions around the world and the increasing number of casualties, it is essential that all countries, especially those with fewer days of involvement, shall do their best to avoid major losses and damages.
Keywords: COVID-19, Coronavirus, Mortality, Iran, Italy, South Korea.
(Please cite as: Shojaee S, Pourhoseingholi MA, Ashtari S, Vahedian-Azimi A, Asadzadeh-Aghdaei H, Zali MR. Predicting the mortality due to Covid-19 by the next month for Italy, Iran and South Korea; a simulation study. Gastroenterol Hepatol Bed Bench 2020;13(2):177-179).
- South Korea.
Lum LH, Tambyah PA. Outbreak of COVID-19–an urgent need for good science to silence our fears? Singapore Med J 2020; 61:55-57.
Benvenuto D, Giovannetti M, Ciccozzi A, Spoto S, Angeletti S, Ciccozzi M. The 2019‐new coronavirus epidemic: evidence for virus evolution. J Med Virol 2020; 92:455-459
Ghani AC, Donnelly CA, Cox DR, Griffin JT, Fraser C, Lam TH, et al. Methods for Estimating the Case Fatality Ratio for a Novel, Emerging Infectious Disease. Am J Epidemiol 2005;162:479–86.
Coronavirus. Available from https://github.com/RamiKrispin/coronavirus.
Bhat UN. An introduction to queueing theory: modeling and analysis in applications. New York: Birkhäuser Basel; 2015.
Ji Y, Ma Z, Peppelenbosch MP, Pan Q. Potential association between COVID-19 mortality and health-care resource availability. Lancet Glob Heal 2020; 8:e480.
Yu M, He S, Wu D, Zhu H, Webster C. Examining the multi-scalar unevenness of high-quality healthcare resources distribution in China. Int J Environ Res Public Health 2019;16:2813.
Kutner MH, Nachtsheim CJ, Neter J, Li W, Editors. Applied linear statistical models. New York: McGraw-Hill Irwin; 2005.
Chavehpour Y, Rashidian A, Woldemichael A, Takian A. Inequality in geographical distribution of hospitals and hospital beds in densely populated metropolitan cities of Iran. BMC Health Serv Res 2019;19:614.
Ramandi SD, Niakan L, Aboutorabi M, Noghabi JJ, Khammarnia M, Sadeghi A. Trend of Inequality in the Distribution of Health Care Resources in Iran. Galen Med J 2016;5:122–30.
Pullano G, Pinotti F, Valdano E, Boëlle P-Y, Poletto C, Colizza V. Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) early-stage importation risk to Europe, January 2020. Euro Surveill 2020;25:2000057.
- Abstract Viewed: 327 times
- PDF Downloaded: 88 times