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Screening Characteristics of TIMI Score in Predicting Acute Coronary Syndrome Outcome; a Diagnostic Accuracy Study

Mostafa Alavi-Moghaddam, Saeed Safari, Hamideh Alavi-Moghaddam
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Abstract

Introduction: In cases with potential diagnosis of ischemic chest pain, screening high risk patients for adverse outcomes would be very helpful. The present study was designed aiming to determine the diagnostic accuracy of thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI) score in Patients with potential diagnosis of ischemic chest pain.

Method: This diagnostic accuracy study was designed to evaluate the screening performance characteristics of TIMI score in predicting 30-day outcomes of mortality, myocardial infarction (MI), and need for revascularization in patients presenting to ED with complaint of typical chest pain and diagnosis of unstable angina or Non-ST elevation MI.

Results: 901 patients with the mean age of 58.17 ± 15.00 years (19-90) were studied (52.9% male). Mean TIMI score of the studied patients was 0.97 ± 0.93 (0-5) and the highest frequency of the score belonged to 0 to 2 with 37.2%, 35.3%, and 21.4%, respectively. In total, 170 (18.8%) patients experienced the outcomes evaluated in this study. Total sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value, and positive and negative likelihood ratio of TIMI score were 20 (95% CI: 17 – 24), 99 (95% CI: 97 – 100), 98 (95% CI: 93 – 100), 42 (95% CI: 39 – 46), 58 (95% CI: 14 – 229), and 1.3 (95% CI: 1.2 – 1.4), respectively. Area under the ROC curve of this system for prediction of 30-day mortality, MI, and need for revascularization were 0.51 (95% CI: 0.47 – 0.55), 0.58 (95% CI: 0.54 – 0.62) and 0.56 (95% CI: 0.52 – 0.60), respectively.

Conclusion: Based on the findings of the present study, it seems that TIMI score has a high specificity in predicting 30-day adverse outcomes of mortality, MI, and need for revascularization following acute coronary syndrome. However, since its sensitivity, negative predictive value, and negative likelihood ratio are low, it cannot be used as a proper screening tool for ruling out low risk patients in ED.


Keywords

Coronary artery disease; prognosis; myocardial infarction; decision support techniques; angina, unstable

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22037/emergency.v5i1.13405

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